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Dear reader,

If inflation is a quiet thief, then deflation is an armed burglar. You wouldn’t invite either into your home, yet chances are that one of the two is stealing your money right now.

Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, has just released a free report that reveals which of these threats you should prepare for right now.

The free 8-page report is adapted from Bob Prechter’s New York Times best-seller, Conquer the Crash, which was published far before the latest headlines warned of inflationary and deflationary dangers.

Even after strong countertrend rallies, global stocks, bonds and commodities are still well off their multi-year highs. All the while, the U.S. dollar has rallied. This broad-based asset deflation is forcing investors to rethink the deflationary scenario. Is it possible that the Fed can’t prevent deflation as its chairman, Ben Bernanke, once promised?

It’s hardly the time to ignore Prechter’s prescient message of how to survive and prosper in the today’s market environment.

Protect yourself and your loved ones.

Visit Elliott Wave International to Download Your Free Report on Inflation and Deflation.

Warmest Regards,

Aidil Azhar

CyberMoneyInfo

_____________________________________________________

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

Hi Guys,

Yesterday was a significant loss. Nevermind, its a process of learning of this system. At least im not hidden for what I’m doing. So talking about today’s trade view, I’ve entered long for both GU and GJ currency pair last nite before I went to sleep.

For GBP/USD I’m going long due its broke the Daily Seller Balance line with 8hr LSMA pointing up.

The same reason goes for GJ, Im targeting GJ to be at daily buyer line (133.00) for exiting profit and for GU at Monthly buyer balance (1.5275)

4th Trade:

Reason:

Price break 8h LSMA daily

daily LSMA pointing up with price above it

Price break Daily BS band and Monthly BB.

Target will be at Daily BB @ 1.5314

Meanwhile, GBBJPY entry stop triggered according Chaos system. Breaked the fractal as in chart

6th Trade been stopped out with profit lock 1 pips (below):

Target: 133.40 Resistance Line of Fibo Pivot

Im greedy.. Cautious to me..I open to more short position.

As a result.. always hit stoploss.. what to do.. supposedly no need to open many position if stoploss were not hit.

For US Session:

From the chaos, I knew the market is already running out of fuel to go short. But I dunno somehow Im not so lucky, my stoploss were hit. Im lost 24 pips for this and not satisfied because Im riding the market feeling (Based in price action)

I put another buy position as below and recently close it.

This trade made me 77 pips in profit, i cant close early cause I wasnt in front of my trading terminal.

Thats all for today. See you tomorrow.

Summary:

1st: 85 pips

2nd: 36 pips

3rd: -24pips

4th: 1 pip

5th: -36 pips

6th: 1 pip

7th: 17 pips

8th: 1 pip

9th: -24 pips

10th: 77 pips

Total: 134 pips

Based on market open today, after considering several factor, I waiting for bullish opportunity and will enter market only if the price cross Daily Seller Balance Band (Green Color) since all other condition of LSMA are agree with the bullish condition. Now the market still regain its momentum for moving and hopefully will show some hint at London session later. Any bearish opportunity will be taken if the price goes below both Blue and Yellow LSMA level.

Just now I’have accidentally buy due to wrong assumtion of candle color. The candle break the line but still not close on top of it. Without proper double check, Imso exited and taking long position. Then after that only then I’ve realise the candle still not close. Result : Ive stopped out -34pips.

Lesson: Ensure candle close first

Action: Change candlestick to barChart since the template show the same clor for bullish and bearish candle and make me confius.

Im waiting for one more candle for considering to go short

2 more trades:

Summary:

Trade for today: 6

1st: -34 pips

2nd: +8 pips

3rd: -59 pips

4th: -53 pips

5th: -24 pips

6th: -25pips

Profit: -187 pips

Hi Guys,

Its been a very long long time I didn’t update my trade journal since I’ve been quitting this trading arena about a year ago. Nothing much I could do within a year time frame until I’ve decided to try it back. I have started my account in InstaForex broker since Interbankfx no longer provide me 1:400 leverage which I usually used.

As a start, I’ve deposit a total sum of $100 in order to test back my skill on trading. I know maybe you were thinking to ask me why I didn’t trade demo? Its because you might know as well demo and real trading feeling is totally different [or maybe I'm Ego As well. Hahaha]. So because its so long of closing chapter in this arena, I’ve almost forgot nearly all the trading plan, system, money management I’ve used before.

As a rewards, I’ve encountered major loss especially on GBP/JPY due to its triangle correction unfolding. I’ve lost hundreds of pips in just one week, a massive lost that cost me $30. Fyi, my account is in forex micro and stated as dollar cents instead of normal dollar value. $100 will be stated as $10000 and I’ve lost $30 which is in cents 3000 bucks. That is a lot if we look deep into the ROI. A 30% loss in just a week. Imagine how would it be for a month. Simple mathematics calculation, it will be 120% draw-down. Since forex introduce a margin call scheme and YES we should say I will have a MARGIN CALLED by a month from last week date.  In simple words. I’M BANKRUPT See my Trading below

Despite of letting this things happened, I’m taking a footstep to revise back myself and what so stupid is I’ve react back as a noob trader which I changed my trading system. OMG! Previously I’m using Chaos Theory and Elliot Wave as my trading guidance. Unfortunately, I’m lost in the bearish and bullish battlefield. Without procrastinating at all, immediately I change my trading system and do a lot more of testing, as a result in between, I’ve lost more. I change the system again until I’ve found a new trading system called “KGBS Trading System” invented by an indonesian trader called Kang Gun. After been using this trading sytem for 3 days [still a lot more to read], its slowly remind me how the trader should be as I before did but now dont . Basically you have to follow trading plan, be patient, analyze market seriously and always alert why you open position of your trade. After all, its your money.

After I’ve realized, I’ve been thinking that I should stick to my technique since it’s not technique that ruined our account portfolio, its just us [US? yes, its me and perhaps you too!!]. But when Im thinking back before making any big decision, I’ve decided to stay put to the system. This is because I need to pay back to the owner of his tremendous knowledge putting all this system together. What type of pay back? By helping newbies to learn to trade FOC. This is not saying that I wanted to be GURU. Hey! Im still newbies [due to someone say to me please dont act as a guru. I had many other things to handle than to be a GURU. Of course I would love to help and share and that doesn't mean I want to be a GURU. I've respect Kang Gun as a Guru and have NO INTENTION to act as second Kang Gun.]. Hmm but at least he [that guy who claim please dont be a guru] taught me fully of this system. I should thank him for his support. Its just when I feel something were not in place, I have my rights to defend myself. After all, its my blog. [Weeeee ]

Enough with the Emo..hahahaha Now after start to put back the trading style in place. What will my view of tomorrow market open? FYI, I’ve change to trade GBPUSD instead others since GBPJPY is too volatile for me to trade and I’ve been in trauma since last week trading GBPJPY although this pair gave me thousand of pips last time. Forget your past. Move forward and dont look back

From the chart above, what I can say is, I’ll have to wait an option to go short or long with a major preferences to short since its short term trending is down. However, based on unable to penetrate the monthly buyer balance line [blue color]. Im considering its finish its correction and wanting to go up. Whatever it is, we all have to wait this Monday open to see the continuous view.

Judging by the fibonacci line taken in the TF1h, there is a major 3 lines of fibo (38.2%) act as a support to current price. Thus, Im firm that there is a major possibility its gonna go up soon [eventhough Im looking forward to see bearish took into action in intraday term]

And looking to bigger time frame in daily as example, Im looking forward it will correction until 1.5650 (50%) Fibonacci line.

Well, that’s all I can say for the time being, We will see tomorrow’s night how the market will unfold. I wish good luck to me and you guys also. Hopefully I will not have margin call anymore for the 2nd time

See ya!!

Catch ya later!

Regards,

Aidil Azhar

Dear reader,

In less than three months, and not even counting the past few days, the Dow has had six big swings averaging more than 1,000 points each — one of them occurred in a single day.

Altogether, like a cross-country caravan, the Dow traversed more than 7,000 points within a 1,600-point range. And you thought the ocean was choppy!

In trademark fashion, the media blamed the bad days on everything from the Gulf oil spill to Greek debt to a “fat-finger” trader glitch to a double-dip recession to lackluster earnings. And they credited the good days to the same list of items “not looking as bad”!

On the other hand, a small group of investors were prepared for this very environment. They positioned themselves for safety and insulated themselves from risk.

You can now get up to speed with this group of independent-minded investors — for free — by reading the same unique brand of analysis they’re reading: Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

Prechter’s firm, Elliott Wave International, has put together a short — albeit very powerful — summary of his latest market analysis and forecasts. If you’re looking for a new brand of independent, unbiased market insight, please take a moment to read Prechter’s special free report.

Access your free report now.

Warmest Regards,

Aidil Azhar

CyberMoneyInfo

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

While many people spend time yearning for the financial markets to turn back up, a rare few have looked back in time to compare historical markets with the current situation – and then delivered a clear-eyed view of the future informed by knowledge of the past. One who has is Robert Prechter. When he thinks about markets and wave patterns, he goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and — most tellingly for our time now — the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear market.

Here is an excerpt from the EWI Independent Investor eBook, which answers the question: How close to the bottom are we?
* * * * *
Originally written by Robert Prechter for The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2009

Some people contact us and say, “People are more bearish than I have ever seen them. This has to be a bottom.” The first half of this statement may well be true for many market observers. If one has been in the market for less than 14 years, one has never seen people this bearish. But market sentiment over those years was a historical anomaly. The annual dividend payout from stocks reached its lowest level ever: less than half the previous record. The P/E ratio reached its highest level ever: double the previous record. The price-to-book value ratio went into the stratosphere, as did the ratio between corporate bond yields and the same corporations’ stock dividend yields.

During nine and a half of those years, from October 1998 to March 2008, optimism dominated so consistently that bulls outnumbered bears among advisors (per the Investors Intelligence polls) for 481 out of 490 weeks. Investors got so used to this period of euphoria and financial excess that they have taken it as the norm.

With that period as a benchmark, the moderate slippage in optimism since 2007 does appear as a severe change. But observe a subtle irony: When commentators agree that investors are too bearish, they say so to justify being bullish. Thus, as part of the crowd, they are still seeking rationalizations for their continued optimism, and one of their best excuses is that everyone else is bearish. This would be reasoning, not rationalization, if it were true.

But is the net reduction in optimism since 2000/2007 in fact enough to indicate a market bottom? For the rest of this issue, we will update the key indicators from Conquer the Crash that so powerfully signaled a historic top in the making. When we are finished, you will know whether or not the market is at bottom.

Figure 1 updates our picture of Supercycle and Grand Supercycle-degree periods of prosperity and depression. The top formed in the past decade is the biggest since 1720, yet, as you can see, the decline so far is small compared to the three that preceded it. There is a lot more room to go on the downside.

Figure 2 updates the Dow’s dividend yield. Over the past nine years, it has improved nicely, from 1.3 percent to 3.7 percent, near its level at previous market tops. If companies’ dividends were to stay the same, a 50 percent drop in stock prices from here would bring the Dow’s yield back into the area where it was at the stock market bottoms of 1942, 1949, 1974 and 1982. But of course, dividends will not stay the same.

Companies are cutting dividends and will cut more as the depression deepens. So, the falling stock market is chasing an elusive quarry in the form of an attractive dividend yield. This is a downward spiral that will not end until prices get ahead of dividend cuts and the Dow’s dividend yield goes above that of 1932, which was 17 percent (or until dividends fall so close to zero that the yield is meaningless).

Get the whole story about how much farther we have to go to a bear-market bottom by reading the rest of this article from EWI’s Independent Investor eBook. The fastest way to read it AND the six new chapters in EWI’s Independent Investor eBook is to become a member of Club EWI.

By Elliott Wave International

Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle in the 1930s. Over the decades, his discovery was kept alive by a handful of individuals. A few of those, such as Bolton, Prechter and Frost, educated investors on how to use pattern analysis in financial markets.

To help out Elliott Wave International’s readers in learning the basics of the method, we put together a free 10-lesson online tutorial. Here’s an excerpt. To get it in full, look for details below.

EWI’s Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial
Lesson 1, excerpt

At that time [of his discovery], with the Dow in the 100s, R. N. Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, phenomenal stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott Wave approach.

Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others’ behavior. This feedback loop is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

The market…is not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Nevertheless, its movement reflects a structured formal progression. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five wave pattern at the largest degree of trend.

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Tutorial and see multiple charts now, free! All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile.

The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.

Jim Puplava: I want to come back to government spending, but first I want to move onto the stock market. In your last two Elliott Wave Theorist issues, you laid out a scenario that would put the Dow and S&P, which in your opinion may have peaked on April 26, as the top from here. You feel that this top is the biggest top formation of all time, a multi-century top and we could head straight down in a six-year collapse that would end in 2016 that could see a substantial portion of the S&P and the Dow wiped out in a similar way that we saw between 1929 and 1933. Let’s talk about that and the reasoning behind it.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

RP: Yes, you’re exactly right. I did a lot of work on technical forms, cycle forms and Elliott wave forms in April and May and put them in a double issue. Let’s talk about the cycles first.

The 7¼-year cycle has been quite regular since the first bottom in 1980. The next bottom was at the crash in October 1987. The next one was November 1994, which is when the economy went through four years with lots of layoffs; it was a recessionary period throughout until that cycle bottomed. The next one was between September 2001, which was the 9/11 attack, and the October 2002 bottom. And the latest one was at the low in March 2009. All those periods are 7¼ years apart, so we are in the uptrend portion of the 7¼-year cycle.

However, notice for example that in 1987, the market went up until August of that year and then bottomed in October, just a couple of months later. So the decline occurred very, very late in the cycle. This time it occurred a little bit earlier in the cycle, topping in ’07 and bottoming in ’09. In the current cycle, prices should peak the earliest of all of them. It’s what we in the cycle prediction business call “left-hand translation.” The market’s already gone up for about a year, and I think that’s just about enough. I think we’re going to spend most of the cycle going down. But the important thing to note is that the next bottom is due in 2016. That means I think we’re going to have a repeat of what happened between 1930—which was the top of the rally following the 1929 crash—and the July 1932 low. Instead of taking two years, it’s going to take about six years.

It’s going to be a very long decline. It’s going to be interrupted by many, many rallies, just as the decline from 1930 to 1932 was. And every time it bottoms and rallies, people are going to say “OK, that’s enough; it’s over.” But it won’t be over. It’s just going to be a long, long process. I think you and I will probably be talking a few times during this period. One of the interesting aspects of this process is that optimism should actually remain dominant through the first three years of the cycle. That will carry us into 2012. Even though prices will be edging lower, most people are going to think it’s a buy, and you shouldn’t get out of your stocks, and recovery is just around the corner, probably for the next three years. And then, for the final half of the cycle, the final three years, that’s when you’ll get the capitulation phase when everyone finally gives up.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.

Jim Puplava: In 1933 at the bottom of the crisis, the Roosevelt administration comes in. In its first week they declare a bank holiday, they reopen the banks with the FDIC, they sever gold, they come in with massive fiscal stimulus and they devalue the dollar substantially. The result was from 1933 to1937 we have positive CPI, economic growth, a robust stock market. If fiscal and monetary measures fail to revive the economy and the market, could the government try devaluation to change the deflationary outcome the way they did 1933?

RP: Well, you have to have a benchmark in order to devalue a currency. Our currency isn’t pegged to anything, so I don’t understand even what the term devaluation would mean. What would they do to do create a devaluation?

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

JP: Maybe they come out with a formal saying: the dollar is now worth a half a euro, X amount of yen or it’s a formal statement. They just declare it formally.

RP: Yeah, but everybody already knows what it’s worth, because it’s floating freely against these other currencies. And they certainly couldn’t fix it to a lesser currency like the euro. And then the managers of this other currency would simply make another decree and negate it. That’s not going to work.

Let’s take your example, because it’s very important. The whole idea of the government being ahead of the curve is bogus. You know the collapse was from September 1929 down to July 1932, right? The government did not act until it was over. They waited for the bottom of the collapse—of course—and then they finally decided they’re going to do something about it. So, months after the low in 1932, they finally shut the banks and pass laws such as Glass-Steagall, which created the FDIC, and the Securities and Exchange Act, and that sort of thing, to bring confidence back into the banking system. I think the same thing is going to happen here. They’re going to try the same old stuff, more and more lending, more and more borrowing—which is the problem, not the solution—until everything collapses, and then they’ll go, “Oh maybe we should try something else,” and by that time we’ll already be at the deflationary nadir, and it’ll be time to look for an inflationary outcome.

My whole thesis is exactly along those lines. We want to stay prepared for a deflationary crash, and when it’s over, we’re going to convert whatever money we have to stocks, and raw land, and gold, and whatever else we want to buy. That’s when—if the government makes a political decision to inflate through currency printing—it would make the decision. They’re not going to make it before the bottom. The government has never acted before the bottom, never acted in a new way. Right now these bailouts and other schemes are simply pressing the accelerator harder on what we’ve been doing since 1913.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

I would like to share to all about this guys quote a nice interesting thought of forex trading methodology. Credit to TEB63 for his quote.

TEB63 Thought on Forex Factory

Source:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=249451#post249451